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adamhanlon

Community Updates on Coronavirus Travel Restrictions

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Posted (edited)

The point of government action is not to eliminate new cases, but to flatten the curve. It’s all about the Rate of Rise of the transmission curve, so that we do not swamp the health care system. That is what is going to kill people.

All humans on the planet have a responsibility to each other, and especially the elderly and compromised, to do their part as governments direct. There are lots more smart people running the show than Youtubers, Facebookers, Tweeters and the like.

As a recently retired physician, my provincial medical licensing body has put me on notice I may be called back into service if the shit really hits the fan....

 

ian

Edited by ianmarsh
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Well said, Ian

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20 hours ago, Captain Fathom said:

When I say weaponized I do not mean deliberate spread, I mean that an unfortunate circumstance is being used for political purpose. And that is not BS. It is very difficult for normal people to make reasonable decisions when so much of the news media is providing false or deliberately hyped information. I am going to go to the WHO and CDC, not NBC or MSNBC, for information. 

 

 

 

It amazes me, however, that when the media directly quote or link to the primary sources, like CDC or WHO, that the information is suddenly deemed false.

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Posted (edited)

I live in Milan, italy..… the situation is really difficult… only my region(lombardy)  today had 146 people dead… the total deaths in lombardy only, is now 890...  isn't a joke, i some place(bergamo province) they  no longer know where to put the bodies of deceased people... morgues are full… :-(  please don't underestimate the situation! ;-) 

Edited by boletus
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Boletus

Sobering indeed.... I just heard a CBC program on the situation in Lombardy and other parts of Northern Italy. It sounds very dire.

The head of the Italian society of critical care was interviewed. His comment was the only control measure that will have any real effect is "social distancing". Forget the masks until you are infected, and gloves are of no use at all....False sense of security and possibly makes things worse.

Wash your hands, but most importantly stay away from close contact with unknown people and stay away from mass gatherings...

Fingers crossed for the affected people in Italy, and a cautionary tale for the rest of the world. This is NOT the 'flu' or a 'bad cold', despite what conspiracy theorists will say.

In the end, concern about cancelled basketball games and cancelled dive trips will seem banal.

 

ian

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The typical timetable to get a medicine through a trial is well over 1 year assuming you have something that works

Considering that the level of proximity in planes is not compliant with the requirements to prevent covid transmission I am concerned that if there is no alternative approach there won’t be any trips involving flights for some time. This may lead to disintegration of the diving industry and maybe other touristic enterprises

On a positive note pollution is dropping and the air is cleaning at this pace this will be more effective of any government green emissions scheme

 

 

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I think Interceptor 121 may be correct... this might be a long process, but maybe something good will come of it. The world does generally seem to be coming together and maybe there are long term lessons we can learn for this, in many areas of human interaction.

That said, and not trying to be unrealistic, but the SARS outbreak lead to rapid escalation of research activity, and bypassing of some regulations. (It's too bad we didn't learn long term lessons from that outbreak!).This is not without some risk, but people are pretty smart these days. I have confidence that the scientific community will get ahead of this.

I saw this:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1

This type of "treatment" may serve as a bridge until a full-on vaccine is on the shelf. One of many areas of investigation:)

Fingers washed and crossed!!

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I think it will be faster to accept the consequences and take the risk of some people dying. In some countries they don't think the same way about life and I think they will rather get on with things than have everybody starve

Probably a mix of things and then when you go to one of those countries you need to self isolate at return

I would be ok with that

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@Interceptor121 You have it backwards...

For example - to visit NZ right now you would have to spend 14 days in self-quarantine when you enter the country. That would make for a very long (and somewhat boring) first two weeks of a holiday. They care (much less) about if you choose to self quarantine once you get back home.

And BTW - suggesting that people should accept the risk and have some of their country-people die is a pretty piss-poor view of the world. You are very lucky that your own government backed away from a similar strategy given the "acceptable loss" number had ballooned up to ~250k people. 

Life is valuable, regardless of where you live.

 

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[mention=34353]Interceptor121[/mention] You have it backwards...
For example - to visit NZ right now you would have to spend 14 days in self-quarantine when you enter the country. That would make for a very long (and somewhat boring) first two weeks of a holiday. They care (much less) about if you choose to self quarantine once you get back home.

And BTW - suggesting that people should accept the risk and have some of their country-people die is a pretty piss-poor view of the world. You are very lucky that your own government backed away from a similar strategy given the "acceptable loss" number had ballooned up to ~250k people. 

Life is valuable, regardless of where you live.

 

New Zealand UK have other resources to survive. Think about a Caribbean Island where most things are imported and tourism is 70% of GDP. The world is predominantly driven by economic interests that has been the underlying cause of wars that killed millions a scenario like that is not as far
People are already shoplifting supermarket and stockpiling. In US weapon sale is peaking. I think that is the demonstration of what drivers are at play. If a vaccine is likely to come summer 2021 there are a lot of people issues to deal with meanwhile


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PNG citizens have no interests in dying, thanks very much. The PNG public are campaigning to close the borders to protect their health over the economy and the government has responded. No international flights inbound to PNG from Sunday. Qantas and Virgin have both cancelled all international flights from Australia from June 30. Australia is denying entry to all non-residents from 9pm tomorrow. NZ has already started this.

For the minute, travel is off. I guess we'll see what happens with a grand reopening at some point later in the year...if this works.

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1 minute ago, errbrr said:

PNG citizens have no interests in dying, thanks very much. The PNG public are campaigning to close the borders to protect their health over the economy and the government has responded. No international flights inbound to PNG from Sunday. Qantas and Virgin have both cancelled all international flights from Australia from June 30. Australia is denying entry to all non-residents from 9pm tomorrow. NZ has already started this.

For the minute, travel is off. I guess we'll see what happens with a grand reopening at some point later in the year...if this works.

Sorry but if a vaccine or cure is 18 months away what are you going to eat in the interim? This is not going to go away in 6 months.

I hope this does not end up in going back to over fishing!

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21 hours ago, ianmarsh said:

I think Interceptor 121 may be correct... this might be a long process, but maybe something good will come of it. The world does generally seem to be coming together and maybe there are long term lessons we can learn for this, in many areas of human interaction.

That said, and not trying to be unrealistic, but the SARS outbreak lead to rapid escalation of research activity, and bypassing of some regulations. (It's too bad we didn't learn long term lessons from that outbreak!).This is not without some risk, but people are pretty smart these days. I have confidence that the scientific community will get ahead of this.

I saw this:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1

This type of "treatment" may serve as a bridge until a full-on vaccine is on the shelf. One of many areas of investigation:)

Fingers washed and crossed!!

I agree that this is likely to take a while to resolve.

 

Also, I want to point out that Biorxiv is for preprints, that is, they have not gone through peer review yet, so be very cautious about anything published there.  It could well be correct, but also might have errors in methodology or analysis, for example.  I am not saying that it is wrong, but to read papers there with a higher than normal level of skepticism.

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2 hours ago, SwiftFF5 said:

I agree that this is likely to take a while to resolve.

 

Also, I want to point out that Biorxiv is for preprints, that is, they have not gone through peer review yet, so be very cautious about anything published there.  It could well be correct, but also might have errors in methodology or analysis, for example.  I am not saying that it is wrong, but to read papers there with a higher than normal level of skepticism.

Totally agree... peer review is the only valid way of validating claims and Biorxiv is not...

 

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3 hours ago, ianmarsh said:

 

Totally agree... peer review is the only valid way of validating claims and Biorxiv is not...

 

Besides the problem with peer review: I did nor read the paper in detail, just the summary - they succeeded in raising an antibody against a virus epitope (=not really difficult). This Ab MIGHT be useful in treatment, but this is by far not granted...

Wolfgng

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Posted (edited)
On 3/13/2020 at 11:29 AM, tursiops said:

It amazes me, however, that when the media directly quote or link to the primary sources, like CDC or WHO, that the information is suddenly deemed false.

I try to go straight to the source. Why, because I do not need the news media to interpret for me. They nearly always do give the information, but then they preface it and follow it with their bias which blurs what is real and what is opinion. I can go to the source and get the info without the bias. 

It is becoming increasingly clear that this pandemic is going to be a long row to hoe. And worse than most hoped it would be. I am still hopeful, perhaps based only on wishful thinking for the best for people, that this will diminish with the onset of spring. But, whether it does or not, it looks like a useful vaccine is still many months away. 

Like many here, I am sure I will be losing some money on trips already paid for. My next up trip has not yet been canceled but I expect it to be. Just not going to be a good year at all. I had hoped it would be. My wife is a nurse/therapist, she was recently exposed to a possible case, results not back yet. Great :( .

Edited by Captain Fathom

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@Interceptor121 Managing GDP will not be anywhere near a priority for most island nations in the near future.

Travel is going to shut down (or be severely limited), and it's likely going to happen worldwide. Countries like Singapore have done a great job of managing this outbreak, but even their residents are being told to stay in Singapore to protect their heath. Weekend dive trips to neighboring countries have dropped to zero.

This is going to take time, and you should expect that many countries will continue to close their borders (or require initial lengthy quarantine stays upon entering the country), because the health of their citizens will be more important than a (significant) downturn in their economies. 

You are thinking way too simplistically about this. For example - one UK lab has already built a model for testing for "immunity" - actually for testing for having had the virus and survived. There was a time (and in some places it is still required) that you travel with proof that you have been vaccinated for smallpox, etc. (this was the case traveling inside of India even ~15 years ago). I can easily see a number of countries requiring that you prove you have recovered from having Covid-19 or they will mandate you quarantine in place for up to 14 days upon entry.






 

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20 hours ago, Interceptor121 said:

Sorry but if a vaccine or cure is 18 months away what are you going to eat in the interim? This is not going to go away in 6 months.

I hope this does not end up in going back to over fishing!

PNG no longer engage in too much cannibalism so no need for the tourists. Cargo is relatively unaffected beyond a few extra quarantine days in port. 

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10 minutes ago, errbrr said:

PNG no longer engage in too much cannibalism so no need for the tourists. Cargo is relatively unaffected beyond a few extra quarantine days in port. 

Hahaha good point had not thought about cannibals...!

This thing is not going away in 3 months I believe and poverty will kick in. Without tourism all the ecosystem of business is likely to suffer extensively this is the point am trying to make

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@Interceptor121 Most of the Pacific Island nations (and all of Indonesia) do not rely on tourism. tourism is a "nice to have" for many of them... not a "need to have."

There are certainly resorts (dive related or otherwise) that will struggle during this time (up to a year+). The vast majority will send staff back to local villages and live this out until travel becomes viable again. I agree some resorts might be too leveraged (loans, etc.) to survive but many will. 

Again, many of these people will go back to living as they did before diving became popular in these areas... I agree places like Cozumel might really struggle, but I have zero interest in visiting placed like that anyway.

There are certainly liveaboards that will struggle as well - but owners have options to dock their boats and wait until this is better.

And you should also consider that the Chinese influence throughout the Pacific and S.E. Asia is huge (and growing)- they invest $M's through their various initiatives. I would expect to see many more dive operations throughout the region start tailoring their offerings to Chinese tourists - who will likely be traveling again before most US & European residents. 

 

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29 minutes ago, oneyellowtang said:

@Interceptor121 Most of the Pacific Island nations (and all of Indonesia) do not rely on tourism. tourism is a "nice to have" for many of them... not a "need to have."

There are certainly resorts (dive related or otherwise) that will struggle during this time (up to a year+). The vast majority will send staff back to local villages and live this out until travel becomes viable again. I agree some resorts might be too leveraged (loans, etc.) to survive but many will. 

Again, many of these people will go back to living as they did before diving became popular in these areas... I agree places like Cozumel might really struggle, but I have zero interest in visiting placed like that anyway.

There are certainly liveaboards that will struggle as well - but owners have options to dock their boats and wait until this is better.

And you should also consider that the Chinese influence throughout the Pacific and S.E. Asia is huge (and growing)- they invest $M's through their various initiatives. I would expect to see many more dive operations throughout the region start tailoring their offerings to Chinese tourists - who will likely be traveling again before most US & European residents. 

 

For sure but if you look at PNG vs Barbados you see that PNG has services 30% Barbados 86% so clearly in there there is tourism and hospitality. Clearly more a threat to some countries than others so I expect a fragmented response

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@Interceptor121 Barbados is the world's 53rd richest country, and the Caribbean's 2nd richest per capita. Offshore banking will keep Barbados healthy for a long time... that is not an example of a country you should show concern for.

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Just now, oneyellowtang said:

@Interceptor121 Barbados is the world's 53rd richest country, and the Caribbean's 2nd richest per capita. Offshore banking will keep Barbados healthy for a long time... that is not an example of a country you should show concern for.

OK we will be all fine says Donald Trump

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