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davec13o2

Dive trip after 2nd virus shot?

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I'm due for a second shot next month, and thinking of setting up a dive trip soon thereafter.  Anyone else have the same idea?

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This is complicated. The vaccine will pretty much keep you from getting sick (not necessarily keeping you from getting infected) and you MIGHT be still able to infect other folk. My suspicion is that places like Indonesia and the Philippines will be open by the beginning of June say, but not clear that it will be much sooner than that. Indonesia still requires a negative test before entry. 

Certainly as we all get the vaccine we want to begin traveling but it is up to the countries we want to visit to allow us in.

 

Bill

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Thailand may open soon. Philippines is not likely to open before mid year, possibly much later.  The tourism industry is pushing, of course, but the president is adamant. Indonesia unknown. 

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Being an aging boomer I received my first shot and am expecting the second in a fortnight. I suspect I will do my first post covid trip to HI which can be done on a much shorter lead time compared to overseas. There already is some travel to HI but with a lot of hoops to jump through. Will be more challenging coming from the bush which is my case.

If one has immunity from the vaccine and catches the virus will that show up as a positive (from testing) and if so for how long and is the lag time (post infection) before positivity different? May take a while before these questions can be answered. If the body's immune system is attacking the virus is there enough to be detectable by a test?

 

Other potential issues relate to the recently reported mutant forms (UK, S. Africa, and US) of the covid virus...

Edited by Tom_Kline

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the Vaccine efficacy is certainly not 100%, so you might still catch it - the impact on you should be less but that's not clear as yet.  A lot of the benefit from vaccination programs comes from herd immunity which might be achieved in your home country, but in less fortunate places the rollout of vaccine will be slower and take longer to establish. 

As others have said it will depend on restrictions in your destination and in also in your home country and also to a certain extent if airlines are flying to where you want to go.  In Australia for example overseas travel is restricted and people returning home from just about anywhere are subject to 14 day quarantine.  Governments I suspect will remain cautious until the impact of the vaccine on infection rates becomes clearer.

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One has to define "catch" - I assumed, maybe incorrectly, the literal meaning. One could catch the virus (have it enter ones body) but not get sick but be able to transmit it and possibly test positive per Bill.

One has to have a contingency plan for testing positive on arrival (negative on departure). One of the first positive cases where I live in bush Alaska was for a fish processing plant employee who tested negative in Seattle then positive here.

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3 hours ago, Tom_Kline said:

One has to define "catch" - I assumed, maybe incorrectly, the literal meaning. One could catch the virus (have it enter ones body) but not get sick but be able to transmit it and possibly test positive per Bill.

One has to have a contingency plan for testing positive on arrival (negative on departure). One of the first positive cases where I live in bush Alaska was for a fish processing plant employee who tested negative in Seattle then positive here.

I don't think in the big picture that the definition of catch is all that important If you can spread it you are a problem until such time as immunity has built up.   I think it's too early to be clear if the vaccine just stops you getting sick or if it truly prevents infection so you also won't spread the disease if you have been exposed.

The other issue is that the rules are quite likely to change while you are away.  You might go to your destination that is currently clear and if they have an outbreak you might be subject to restrictions upon your return.

My current thinking is my dive trips will be local - that is within home country in 2021 and hopefully in 2022 I'll be able to travel further afield.

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I am from Austria and it will still last weeks/monthes until I will get vaccinated...

Only after vaccination I will start to resume dive travelling activities, depending on the countries that will open their borders for tourists. First, however, I will travel only by car to remain independent from air travel, that was already unreliable before the corona crisis and it will last a while until it will become more reliable again...

Regarding the concerns about effectiveness of vaccination, raised above: While protection against infection is less than 100%, the vaccinations are very effective in preventing severe symptoms of corona. In addition, a recent study from Israel (that has a high vaccination rate) shows a 30% reduction in infections among people that got the first injection (not enough data on fully vaccinated people available yet). Hence vaccination does not only prevent severe sickness, but also infection and transmission will be markedly reduced by the vaccine...

At present, I see no reason why one should not go for diving vacations after vaccination, I will imediately do so, I am waiting for the vacine...

 

Wolfgang

Edited by Architeuthis
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The OP didn't say where you're planning a trip to... which is of course important.

If going international, in addition to all the efficacy of the vaccine / am I immune / am I a vector / can I get there and back uncertainty, another dimension of risk to consider is whether insurance is obtainable or cost-effective. I expect many insurers won't be falling over themselves to pay for Covid related claims (and possibly also travel delay claims), just because of availability of a vaccine/proof of vaccination. The vaccination of a minority of the global population is unlikely to be a significant stimulus in that regard. 

Much as I'd love to travel again, I am steeling myself to staying local rather than  experiencing the disappointment of delaying more trips....or spending ten  extra days in a quarantine hotel at my own expense...

 

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14 hours ago, Architeuthis said:

Regarding the concerns about effectiveness of vaccination, raised above: While protection against infection is less than 100%, the vaccinations are very effective in preventing severe symptoms of corona. In addition, a recent study from Israel (that has a high vaccination rate) shows a 30% reduction in infections among people that got the first injection (not enough data on fully vaccinated people available yet). Hence vaccination does not only prevent severe sickness, but also infection and transmission will be markedly reduced by the vaccine...

At present, I see no reason why one should not go for diving vacations after vaccination, I will imediately do so, I am waiting for the vacine...

 

Wolfgang

There are two points of view to consider - your personal survival and from a more altruistic view point the survival and safety of the population.  Governments to be cynical are really not all that concerned if any one individual lives or dies if they travel and get covid, they are more concerned about epidemiology - whether or not people travelling will spread the virus to those who are not immune and start a cluster off again.  So even if you don't die or even if don't get ill from COVID because you are vaccinated  this may not mean that you cannot infect others and governments will have an interest in stopping people spreading it to non vaccinated citizens.  Of course this will depend on how cavalier your government is in relation to COVID.  

I suspect many governments will wait until a critical mass is vaccinated before relaxing travel requirements and will probably be selective about quarantine requirements upon return depending on where you have been.  Equally destination countries may be selective on who they admit.  Places like Fiji and Vanuatu have closed their borders and are unlikely to open them until they get vaccines there. 

I didn't even think about insurance, you can be sure there will be a covid clause and also one to protect them from shelling out for quarantine costs. 

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I agree. I would not go to a destination with an unprotected population (without vaccine) even if I had mine.  That is, unless it has been proven that I could not be an asymptomatic carrier after vaccination.  That could be a while to determine.  In the meantime, I also agree that if vaccination becomes widespread enough such that local trips would be safe, then that's what I would do.  There's plenty to see off the US coasts.

I did call Philippine Airline for a trip to Cebu, but they're closed to travel by foreigners until mid-summer.  I don't know about the vaccination schedule to protect their own population, which would determine whether I go.

As an aside, in thinking about efficacy of vaccination, it seems to me that the purpose of it is to prevent virus multiplication, which is the definition of immunity.  Nothing is 100% effective, so there would be some multiplication,  just not enough to overwhelm the immune system.  And in arresting multiplication, the viral load within the body would be low, greatly reducing the likelihood of spreading the virus to other people - there would still be the risk of spreading, but a much lower risk.  Therefore, I would suspect that people with vaccination would present a low danger level, although that has not been proven definitively.

But now there are the mutations to worry about. 

Well, I've already lost a year; and at age 78 I figure I have a couple to go before my diving career is over.  Would be a shame to have to spend them watching videos of what could have been, although I do appreciate the work of the experts.

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As stated, the vaccine lowers the chance of you getting COVID, however, you can still be a carrier of it.  The virus lives in your nostrils and a vaccine does not kill a virus entering your nose and living there so you are then exposing others. 

Personally, I'm drying up here in the midwest (you know my scales...lol) and so want to go diving but no trips planned yet.  Dreaming of a trip to the Philippines March 2022, we will see.

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I got my second dose today, and I am leaving for Roatan on Saturday.  The timing has all worked out well for me.

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1 hour ago, SwiftFF5 said:

I got my second dose today, and I am leaving for Roatan on Saturday.  The timing has all worked out well for me.

The vaccine may not be at 100% by then. The Pfizer (which I got) is supposed to be partly effective 2 weeks after shot 1 but I do not know when maximum immunity is achieved after shot 2 (mine is < 1week :->>). Good luck!!!!

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On 2/3/2021 at 3:01 PM, Tom_Kline said:

The vaccine may not be at 100% by then. The Pfizer (which I got) is supposed to be partly effective 2 weeks after shot 1 but I do not know when maximum immunity is achieved after shot 2 (mine is < 1week :->>). Good luck!!!!

Yes, I understand that, thanks.  But, it is good to have that second shot before we leave.

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On 2/3/2021 at 10:44 AM, SwiftFF5 said:

I got my second dose today, and I am leaving for Roatan on Saturday.  The timing has all worked out well for me.

Where will you be staying and for how long?

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On 1/26/2021 at 3:05 PM, davec13o2 said:

I'm due for a second shot next month, and thinking of setting up a dive trip soon thereafter.  Anyone else have the same idea?

Yes, but...  I get my first shot Tuesday, and no idea when the 2nd yet.  And then it takes maybe 3 weeks to achieve full strength results, be that immunity or something less.  Realistically, I shouldn't be traveling until April, assuming I finish my shots in February.

And then, yes, I'd like to go diving again.  But then there are the travel-related issues, including the need (and expense) for rapid PCR tests leaving and coming back.  Plus the question of what to do if I'm out of the country and test positive.

My goal is to get back to Roatan as I missed my annual trip there last year for the first time since 2014.   It used to be easy to fly there, but I'm dreading the experience now.   Actually I'm dreading about any experience that forces me  through the Miami airport.

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This article is relevant to this thread:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2021-02-05/covid-19-vaccines-do-they-prevent-coronavirus-transmission/13121348?fbclid=IwAR0zWol-KyzrTJjFxQSl2gG0VRE50VAcQD2GZi2B-iRcNZ8zVTBT_NABv-s

 

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59 minutes ago, Tom_Kline said:

Very interesting article.  Of course we need careful studies and definitive data, but one comment toward the end is encouraging, “In other words, symptomatic people comprise the lion's share of COVID-19's spread.”  And asymptomatic people having gotten the vaccine would be much less infectious?

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I’d recommend caution on that point.  There are other credible studies that indicate asymptotic transmission could account for half of all cases.  Unfortunately there is still much uncertainty. 

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9 hours ago, troporobo said:

I’d recommend caution on that point.  There are other credible studies that indicate asymptotic transmission could account for half of all cases.  Unfortunately there is still much uncertainty. 

I would agree, it'll take some time to analyse testing results and the impact of the vaccine, until something definitive is published it's a roll of the dice, more than likely you'll be fine but if you're not you could find yourself in trouble.  One of the issues is that travel insurance will probably have exclusions for some time so if you get in trouble you could find yourself on your own.

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On 1/26/2021 at 10:05 PM, davec13o2 said:

I'm due for a second shot next month, and thinking of setting up a dive trip soon thereafter.  Anyone else have the same idea?

Most likely countries that are desperate to get tourists will be happy to get you in, there you will find none of your boat crew or resort to be vaccinated. On your return you may be forced to quarantine. It is a bit more complex than just thinking about you

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In a recent JAMA study, it shows that for most of the current mutations, something like 60% of transmission is from asymptomatic patients, roughly half of that from people before they show symptoms and the other half from patients that never show symptoms. One big issue though is that there is no good test for live virus i.e. viral load. The typical PCR tests only look for RNA and that may or may not due to live virus. I will supposedly get my second shot in a week or so (Moderna) here in Los Angeles, but my wife is likely at least two months away. Certainly I would like to travel but getting a severe COVID infection in the wilds of Indonesia (think Triton Bay) seems like a bad idea.

Bill

 

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Any travel is a calculated risk, as even after both Covid vaccine shots, if exposed one has a 5 to 10 chance of getting ill; but this is a guess, as not enough time has transpired to gather the necessary data. 

Each country's restrictions keep on changing, so it is best to look them up on-line.

For example, for Indonesian travel info one site is: https://www.indonesia.travel/gb/en/coronavirus:
for the Philippines: https://ph.usembassy.gov/covid-19-information/

It is also a good idea to keep in touch with one's travel agent whose business it is to know these details.

I would like to go to Bali, here are the current requirements, assuming I am already in Indonesia. But first, I would need to find out if a 5 day quarantine plus a negative test are needed to enter Indonesia:

"Balinese Government Imposed Obligatory PCR Test Result Requirements for Upcoming Bali Visitors. Sat, 9 Jan 2021

The Indonesian government requires national and international tourists planning to board a plane to Bali to take a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) swab test at least 2 x 24 hours before departure or rapid antigen test at least 1 x 24 hours before departure. 

Those traveling by plane must show a certificate of a negative result of PCR-based swab test no later than 2 x 24 hours before departure or a certificate negative result of rapid antigen test no longer than 1 x 24 hours before departure, and filling e-HAC Indonesia;

Those traveling using private vehicles through land and sea transportation must show a certificate of a negative result of PCR-based swab test no later than 2 x 24 hours before departure or a certificate negative result of rapid antigen test no longer than 1 x 24 hours before departure.

While you are in Bali, you must have a certificate of negative results of the PCR-based swab test which is valid for 14 days, or a negative result of a rapid antigen test which is valid for 7 days.

Domestic travelers departing from Bali can use their valid certificate of negative result of the PCR-based swab test or a valid rapid antigen test for the return trip from Bali.

For international travelers, please be mindful to always check the flight restrictions to Indonesia before planning to visit Bali. We will keep you updated with the newest information and regulations regarding traveling to Indonesia during the pandemic." 

As if this is not sufficient, we now have the new virus mutants which may be somewhat more contagious. And to get, say to Bali, one has to pass through other countries, such as Singapore or Malaysia, maybe with stops overs like Honolulu, all of which will have their own Covid requirements. 

A good travel agent does seem necessary.

 

 

 

Edited by Kraken de Mabini

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11 hours ago, bvanant said:

In a recent JAMA study, it shows that for most of the current mutations, something like 60% of transmission is from asymptomatic patients, roughly half of that from people before they show symptoms and the other half from patients that never show symptoms. One big issue though is that there is no good test for live virus i.e. viral load. The typical PCR tests only look for RNA and that may or may not due to live virus. I will supposedly get my second shot in a week or so (Moderna) here in Los Angeles, but my wife is likely at least two months away. Certainly I would like to travel but getting a severe COVID infection in the wilds of Indonesia (think Triton Bay) seems like a bad idea.

Bill

 

We’ll be visiting my MD son in Hawaii soon. They require an NAAT (nuclei acid amplification test), which we will get, or quarantine for 2 weeks. NAAT tests for active infection, at a cost of $150.  They do not accept PCR which tests for antibodies that could have been produced by prior infection.  I heard a report that no one in any country who has had a vaccine has had a serious COVID infection.  So, with vaccinations and an NAAT test you should be safe and likely not a carrier.  Of course, to be absolutely sure it would be wise to wait for peer reviewed published journal studies. 

Edited by davec13o2

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